Abstract

To further elucidate the natural history of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, we studied intermediate HIV-related conditions occurring before acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in a prospectively observed multicenter cohort of 738 HIV-infected persons with hemophilia. We analyzed the frequency in adults and children of common HIV-related conditions and the relative risk of AIDS after occurrence of these conditions, controlling for age at seroconversion and the percentage of CD4+ lymphocytes. Thrombocytopenia was the most frequently observed condition with cumulative incidences of 43% +/- 7% in adults and 27% +/- 6% in children and adolescents by 10 years after seroconversion. Oral candidiasis, fever, weight loss, and non-AIDS pneumonia were two to four times more common in adults than children, whereas herpes zoster risk was similar in the two age groups. HIV- related conditions were infrequent during the first 4 years of infection, particularly in children. With the exception of thrombocytopenia, mean CD4 counts were less than 350 cells/microL at the onset of the conditions. The relative hazard of AIDS after oral candidiasis was 18 in children and 3.8 in adults. Relative hazard in adults was also increased after persistent fever (10), weight loss (3.2), and non-AIDS pneumonia (2.2). Herpes zoster and thrombocytopenia were not significantly associated with AIDS in either age group. We conclude that intermediate HIV-related conditions occur more frequently in adults than in children with hemophilia. Persistent fever is the strongest predictor of AIDS in adults, whereas oral candidiasis is the strongest predictor in children. These findings should facilitate the design and conduct of clinical trials as well as the management of HIV- infected children and adults.

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