The impact of the CA on prognosis and transformation into acute myeloid leukemia among pts with low and int-1 risk MDS is not known. The aims of the study were to assess the impact of CA on the natural history of pts with lower risk MDS and to identify factors associated with its development.
We reviewed 721 pts clinical records of low and intermediate risk MDS pts from 2000–2010 and conducted a retrospective analysis of all pts with at least two consecutive cytogenetic analysis (365 patients, 51%). The acquisition of CA was defined by structural change or gain in at least 2 metaphases and loss in 3 metaphases, or otherwise confirmed by FISH. Cox proportional hazards regression models were fit to assess the association between transformation-free survival (TFS) or overall survival (OS) and pt characteristics. The acquisition of CA was fitted in the Cox model as a time-dependent covariate. The association between the acquisition of CA and pt characteristics was assessed through univariate and multiple logistic regression models.
CA was detected in 107 pts (29%) after a median follow-up of 34 months (mos). CA was observed in a median number of 4 metaphases (range, 2–30). At diagnosis, 21% and 79% of pts who acquired CA were low-and int-1risk MDS; 50% were diploid, 22% harbored chromosome 5 /7 abnormalities. At the time of acquisition of CA, the median percentage of bone marrow blasts was 4% (range, 0% to 89%), the median WBC, hemoglobin and platelets were 3.1 × 109/L, 9.5 g/dL, and 65 × 109/L, respectively; pts were low, int-1, int-2, and high-risk MDS in 3%, 42%, 26%, 29%, respectively. The median TFS and OS were 31 (95% CI: 27– 37) and 34 (95% CI: 30 – 44) mos respectively. Assessing CA as time-dependent covariate, patients with CA had a worse TFS and OS, with a median TFS and OS of 16 and 18 mos compared to 56 and 60 mos, respectively in pts without CA. Based on the multivariable Cox model and after adjusting for effects of all other covariates, pts who had acquired CA had an increased risk of transformation (HR=1.46; p-value = 0.01) or death (HR=1.50; p-value = 0.01). By multivariate analysis, female pts with prior chemotherapy had an increased risk of developing CA (OR= 5.26; p-value <0.0001). 96 pts had history of previous malignancy treated with chemotherapy +/− radiation therapy. Of those, 34 (35%) patients acquired CA. Median time from previous chemotherapy to the acquisition of CA was 61 mos (range, 11 to 180). Pts previously treated who did not acquire CA had similar outcomes to those who had never been treated and did not develop CA, while those who did develop CA whether they were previously treated or not had worse TFS and OS.
CA occurs at a rate of 29% of pts with lower risk MDS, more common among pts with previously treated malignancy, and has a significant impact on TFS and OS, possibly reflecting genomic instability in the natural history of MDS.
Cortes:BMS: Consultancy, Research Funding; Novartis: Consultancy, Research Funding; Pfizer: Consultancy, Research Funding.
Asterisk with author names denotes non-ASH members.